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积极面对不确定环境下的外汇市场

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年02月24日 16:49:16
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(原)(标)(题)(:积)(极)(面)(对)(不)(确)(定)(环)(境)(下)(的)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(
  未)(来)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(内)(外)(部)(环)(境)(面)(临)(较)(大)(不)(确)(定)(性)(,既)(可)(能)(总)(体)(向)(好)(的)(方)(向)(发)(展)(,也)(可)(能)(总)(体)(向)(坏)(的)(方)(向)(发)(展)(,且)(事)(态)(发)(展)(路)(径)(有)(可)(能)(是)(时)(好)(时)(坏)(的)(曲)(折)(变)(化)(。
当)(前)(的)(压)(力)(主)(要)(源)(于)(市)(场)(选)(择)(性)(相)(信)(坏)(消)(息)(。稳)(预)(期)(对)(于)(稳)(汇)(率)(或)(者)(稳)(汇)(市)(非)(常)(重)(要)(。
当)(前)(形)(势)(下)(没)(有)(无)(痛)(的)(汇)(率)(政)(策)(选)(择)(,汇)(率)(动)(与)(不)(动)(,均)(有)(利)(有)(弊)(。政)(府)(应)(明)(确)(政)(策)(目)(标)(,使)(政)(策)(与)(目)(标)(保)(持)(一)(致)(。
管)(涛)(
中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(是)(影)(响)(今)(年)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(走)(势)(一)(个)(重)(要)(因)(素)(,但)(迄)(今)(为)(止)(对)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(是)(心)(理)(冲)(击)(大)(于)(实)(质)(冲)(击)(。近)(来)(,市)(场)(上)(流)(行)(最)(广)(的)(一)(句)(话)(是)(:“不)(确)(定)(性)(就)(是)(最)(大)(的)(确)(定)(性)(”。未)(来)(中)(国)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(运)(行)(面)(临)(三)(方)(面)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(,无)(论)(市)(场)(和)(政)(府)(都)(应)(该)(克)(服)(单)(边)(、线)(性)(思)(维)(,未)(雨)(绸)(缪)(、防)(患)(未)(然)(。
一)(、中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(至)(今)(对)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(心)(理)(影)(响)(大)(于)(实)(质)(冲)(击)(
今)(年)(二)(季)(度)(以)(来)(,既)(在)(预)(料)(之)(中)(又)(在)(意)(料)(之)(外)(的)(中)(美)(贸)(易)(纷)(争)(逐)(步)(升)(级)(,成)(为)(影)(响)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(走)(势)(的)(一)(个)(重)(要)(因)(素)(。理)(论)(上)(讲)(,贸)(易)(纠)(纷)(对)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(的)(影)(响)(渠)(道)(有)(三)(:一)(是)(心)(理)(渠)(道)(,即)(鉴)(于)(人)(民)(币)(的)(风)(险)(资)(产)(特)(征)(,通)(过)(增)(加)(中)(国)(经)(济)(运)(行)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(,给)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(造)(成)(调)(整)(压)(力)(;二)(是)(贸)(易)(渠)(道)(,即)(通)(过)(影)(响)(中)(国)(对)(美)(出)(口)(,减)(少)(中)(国)(对)(美)(贸)(易)(顺)(差)(,进)(而)(影)(响)(中)(国)(经)(常)(项)(目)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(和)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(走)(势)(;三)(是)(金)(融)(渠)(道)(,即)(通)(过)(影)(响)(外)(商)(来)(华)(投)(资)(和)(对)(外)(直)(接)(投)(资)(,减)(少)(中)(国)(直)(接)(投)(资)(项)(下)(的)(资)(本)(流)(入)(,进)(而)(增)(加)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(的)(变)(数)(。
到)(现)(在)(为)(止)(,后)(两)(个)(渠)(道)(的)(影)(响)(有)(限)(。虽)(然)(前)(三)(季)(度)(中)(国)(贸)(易)(总)(顺)(差)(减)(少)(,但)(对)(美)(双)(边)(贸)(易)(顺)(差)(扩)(大)(,中)(美)(两)(方)(的)(统)(计)(均)(显)(示)(8、9月)(份)(中)(美)(月)(度)(贸)(易)(失)(衡)(连)(创)(历)(史)(新)(高)(。同)(时)(,中)(方)(统)(计)(的)(前)(三)(季)(度)(非)(金)(融)(部)(门)(利)(用)(外)(商)(直)(接)(投)(资)(同)(比)(正)(增)(长)(,对)(外)(直)(接)(投)(资)(温)(和)(增)(长)(,上)(半)(年)(国)(际)(收)(支)(口)(径)(的)(直)(接)(投)(资)(净)(流)(入)(同)(比)(增)(加)(4.73倍)(。联)(合)(国)(贸)(发)(会)(统)(计)(的)(上)(半)(年)(中)(国)(利)(用)(外)(商)(直)(接)(投)(资)(同)(比)(增)(长)(6%,规)(模)(名)(列)(世)(界)(前)(茅)(,同)(期)(全)(球)(外)(商)(直)(接)(投)(资)(流)(入)(下)(降)(41%,其)(中)(美)(国)(降)(幅)(高)(达)(73%。可)(见)(,贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(对)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(的)(影)(响)(主)(要)(通)(过)(心)(理)(渠)(道)(发)(挥)(作)(用)(。从)(美)(国)(当)(地)(时)(间)(3月)(22日)(公)(布)(“301调)(查)(报)(告)(”并)(威)(胁)(对)(华)(进)(口)(加)(征)(关)(税)(以)(来)(,到)(10月)(26日)(,人)(民)(币)(兑)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(中)(间)(价)(累)(计)(下)(跌)(了)(6343个)(基)(点)(,其)(中)(收)(盘)(价)(相)(对)(于)(当)(日)(中)(间)(价)(偏)(弱)(累)(计)(贡)(献)(了)(贬)(值)(4145个)(基)(点)(,后)(者)(占)(到)(总)(跌)(幅)(的)(65%。
二)(、中)(美)(贸)(易)(纷)(争)(演)(进)(的)(三)(种)(可)(能)(性)(
一)(种)(是)(互)(征)(进)(口)(关)(税)(的)(措)(施)(对)(双)(方)(经)(济)(影)(响)(都)(不)(大)(,贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(有)(可)(能)(不)(断)(升)(级)(。例)(如)(,第)(一)(批)(500亿)(美)(元)(进)(口)(商)(品)(互)(相)(加)(征)(25%关)(税)(的)(措)(施)(,相)(对)(于)(中)(美)(两)(国)(的)(经)(济)(和)(贸)(易)(体)(量)(来)(讲)(均)(规)(模)(有)(限)(、影)(响)(较)(小)(,所)(以)(招)(致)(了)(第)(二)(批)(关)(税)(打)(击)(和)(报)(复)(措)(施)(的)(迅)(速)(出)(台)(。
一)(种)(是)(互)(征)(关)(税)(的)(过)(程)(中)(,一)(方)(感)(觉)(到)(冲)(击)(太)(大)(,难)(以)(承)(受)(,则)(可)(能)(在)(磋)(商)(中)(做)(出)(妥)(协)(。例)(如)(,由)(于)(加)(拿)(大)(和)(墨)(西)(哥)(对)(美)(国)(出)(口)(市)(场)(依)(赖)(过)(大)(,难)(以)(承)(受)(关)(税)(战)(的)(损)(失)(,而)(被)(迫)(接)(受)(北)(美)(贸)(易)(协)(定)(重)(新)(谈)(判)(的)(结)(果)(,重)(新)(签)(订)(了)(“美)(加)(墨)(贸)(易)(协)(定)(”。
再)(一)(种)(是)(互)(征)(关)(税)(对)(双)(方)(经)(济)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(都)(比)(较)(大)(,从)(而)(双)(方)(有)(可)(能)(坐)(下)(来)(谈)(判)(,磋)(商)(解)(决)(分)(歧)(。随)(着)(第)(二)(批)(美)(国)(对)(华)(2000亿)(美)(元)(进)(口)(商)(品)(加)(征)(10%的)(关)(税)(,中)(国)(对)(美)(600亿)(美)(元)(进)(口)(商)(品)(加)(征)(5~10%的)(关)(税)(,对)(两)(国)(经)(济)(和)(贸)(易)(的)(影)(响)(面)(扩)(大)(,双)(方)(都)(能)(够)(更)(加)(深)(刻)(地)(感)(受)(到)(贸)(易)(冲)(突)(造)(成)(的)(痛)(楚)(,这)(有)(助)(于)(双)(方)(软)(化)(对)(抗)(的)(立)(场)(,增)(强)(对)(话)(的)(意)(愿)(。
三)(、中)(国)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(运)(行)(的)(三)(种)(前)(景)(
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