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国际油价上涨对中国经济影响几何

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年10月16日 02:25:37
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(原)(标)(题)(:国)(际)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(对)(中)(国)(经)(济)(影)(响)(几)(何)(
编)(辑)(圈)(点)(张)(娜)(上)(周)(,受)(多)(重)(利)(好)(影)(响)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(大)(幅)(以)(“五)(连)(阳)(”完)(美)(收)(官)(,涨)(幅)(逾)(8%。本)(周)(首)(个)(交)(易)(日)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(延)(续)(上)(涨)(态)(势)(,并)(创)(两)(个)(月)(以)(来)(的)(新)(高)(。7月)(31日)(,亚)(市)(早)(盘)(,NYMEX西)(德)(克)(萨)(斯)(中)(质)(原)(油)((CrudeOilWTI)9月)(合)(约)(接)(近)(50美)(元)(关)(口)(,ICE布)(伦)(特)(10月)(原)(油)(期)(货)(在)(52美)(元)(上)(方)(持)(续)(上)(攻)(,表)(现)(强)(劲)(。对)(于)(后)(期)(走)(势)(,看)(空)(者)(寡)(,看)(多)(者)(众)(。据)(彭)(博)(社)(7月)(28日)(公)(布)(的)(调)(查)(结)(果)(显)(示)(,在)(接)(受)(调)(查)(的)(41位)(交)(易)(员)(与)(分)(析)(师)(中)(,24人)((59%)看)(多)(,7人)((17%)看)(空)(,10人)((24%)看)(平)(。国)(际)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(对)(中)(国)(经)(济)(有)(哪)(些)(影)(响)(?首)(先)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(“六)(连)(阳)(”,再)(一)(次)(推)(动)(国)(内)(原)(油)(变)(化)(率)(正)(值)(拉)(宽)(。据)(媒)(体)(报)(道)(,受)(近)(期)(国)(际)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(影)(响)(,国)(内)(油)(库)(是)(一)(天)(一)(个)(价)(,多)(地)(油)(库)(出)(现)(缺)(油)(现)(象)(。截)(至)(7月)(31日)(,国)(内)(原)(油)(变)(化)(率)(为)(3.69%,对)(应)(汽)(油)(、柴)(油)(上)(调)(127元)(一)(吨)(左)(右)(,国)(内)(成)(品)(油)(调)(价)(时)(间)(窗)(口)(将)(在)(本)(周)(五)(,也)(就)(是)(8月)(4日)(24时)(开)(启)(。如)(无)(意)(外)(,本)(轮)(成)(品)(油)(价)(格)(或)(小)(幅)(上)(调)(,成)(为)(年)(内)(第)(六)(次)(上)(调)(。上)(次)(调)(价)(是)(今)(年)(的)(7月)(21日)(24时)(,国)(内)(汽)(、柴)(油)(每)(吨)(均)(上)(调)(75元)(。该)(次)(调)(整)(是)(2017年)(国)(内)(油)(价)(的)(第)(5次)(上)(调)(,此)(前)(国)(内)(油)(价)(已)(经)(历)(六)(次)(下)(调)(,四)(次)(上)(调)(及)(三)(次)(搁)(浅)(。国)(际)(原)(油)(价)(格)(走)(势)(可)(谓)(是)(我)(国)(成)(品)(油)(调)(价)(的)(风)(向)(标)(。我)(国)(《石)(油)(价)(格)(管)(理)(办)(法)(》规)(定)(,国)(内)(汽)(、柴)(油)(价)(格)(根)(据)(国)(际)(市)(场)(原)(油)(价)(格)(变)(化)(每)(10个)(工)(作)(日)(调)(整)(一)(次)(,调)(价)(生)(效)(时)(间)(为)(调)(价)(发)(布)(日)(24时)(。当)(调)(价)(幅)(度)(低)(于)(每)(吨)(50元)(时)(,不)(作)(调)(整)(,纳)(入)(下)(次)(调)(价)(时)(累)(加)(或)(冲)(抵)(。其)(次)(,成)(品)(油)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(,对)(汽)(车)(市)(场)(持)(续)(增)(长)(可)(能)(造)(成)(不)(利)(因)(素)(,或)(抑)(制)(汽)(车)(消)(费)(。虽)(然)(此)(次)(从)(短)(期)(来)(看)(,影)(响)(不)(大)(,但)(就)(长)(期)(而)(言)(,将)(对)(我)(国)(汽)(车)(行)(业)(造)(成)(较)(大)(冲)(击)(。汽)(车)(使)(用)(的)(燃)(料)(油)(是)(从)(石)(油)(中)(提)(取)(出)(来)(的)(,石)(油)(价)(格)(的)(上)(涨)(必)(然)(会)(带)(来)(燃)(料)(油)(价)(格)(的)(上)(涨)(。而)(汽)(车)(与)(汽)(油)(的)(关)(系)(从)(经)(济)(学)(的)(角)(度)(上)(讲)(,是)(互)(补)(性)(非)(常)(强)(的)(产)(品)(,即)(一)(种)(产)(品)(的)(价)(格)(上)(升)(必)(然)(会)(带)(来)(另)(外)(一)(种)(产)(品)((互)(补)(性)(产)(品)()需)(求)(量)(的)(减)(少)(。因)(此)(,受)(国)(际)(石)(油)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(的)(影)(响)(,国)(内)(石)(油)(价)(格)(一)(路)(攀)(升)(,从)(而)(使)(近)(年)(来)(高)(速)(增)(长)(的)(中)(国)(汽)(车)(行)(业)(受)(到)(较)(大)(的)(冲)(击)(,造)(成)(我)(国)(汽)(车)(行)(业)(在)(长)(期)(和)(短)(期)(内)(受)(到)(不)(同)(的)(影)(响)(。第)(三)(,我)(国)(原)(油)(进)(口)(价)(格)(随)(着)(国)(际)(原)(油)(期)(货)(市)(场)(的)(价)(格)(而)(发)(生)(变)(化)(,国)(际)(原)(油)(期)(货)(价)(格)(通)(过)(国)(际)(贸)(易)(途)(径)(传)(导)(到)(我)(国)(进)(口)(商)(品)(价)(格)(中)(,进)(而)(对)(我)(国)(经)(济)(产)(生)(影)(响)(。当)(国)(外)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(时)(,我)(国)(进)(货)(成)(本)(升)(高)(,导)(致)(我)(国)(输)(入)(性)(膨)(胀)(,基)(础)(产)(品)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(。当)(前)(,我)(国)(不)(仅)(是)(世)(界)(原)(油)(生)(产)(国)(,还)(是)(世)(界)(上)(最)(重)(要)(的)(石)(油)(消)(费)(国)(和)(进)(口)(国)(。据)(英)(国)(石)(油)(公)(司)((BP)发)(布)(的)(统)(计)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,截)(至)(2016年)(年)(底)(,中)(国)(生)(产)(原)(油)(399.9万)(桶)(/天)(,占)(世)(界)(原)(油)(产)(量)(的)(4.3%,是)(世)(界)(第)(八)(大)(原)(油)(生)(产)(国)(;中)(国)(原)(油)(消)(费)(量)(为)(1238.1万)(桶)(/天)(,占)(世)(界)(消)(费)(量)(的)(12.8%,是)(世)(界)(第)(二)(大)(原)(油)(消)(费)(国)(。另)(据)(国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,2016年)(我)(国)(生)(产)(原)(油)(19771万)(吨)(,进)(口)(原)(油)(3.81亿)(吨)(,出)(口)(294万)(吨)(,原)(油)(表)(观)(消)(费)(量)(5.56亿)(吨)(,对)(外)(依)(存)(度)(突)(破)(65%。相)(比)(我)(国)(原)(油)(的)(巨)(大)(需)(求)(,我)(国)(原)(油)(产)(出)(早)(已)(跟)(不)(上)(需)(求)(的)(增)(长)(。为)(了)(满)(足)(国)(民)(经)(济)(发)(展)(、弥)(补)(原)(油)(缺)(口)(,我)(国)(1993年)(开)(始)(从)(国)(外)(进)(口)(原)(油)(。我)(国)(原)(油)(进)(口)(主)(要)(来)(自)(中)(东)(产)(油)(国)(、俄)(罗)(斯)(及)(前)(苏)(联)(地)(区)(、非)(洲)(的)(产)(油)(国)(和)(地)(区)(。据)(海)(关)(总)(署)(公)(布)(的)(信)(息)(,2016年)(进)(口)(原)(油)(3.81亿)(吨)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(13.6%。2016年)(我)(国)(从)(中)(东)(地)(区)(进)(口)(的)(原)(油)(占)(总)(进)(口)(量)(的)(近)(50%,中)(东)(地)(区)(是)(我)(国)(原)(油)(进)(口)(的)(最)(主)(要)(来)(源)(,因)(此)(,上)(海)(能)(源)(交)(易)(中)(心)((能)(源)(中)(心)()在)(原)(油)(期)(货)(标)(的)(物)(的)(选)(取)(上)(,也)(是)(选)(择)(了)(自)(中)(东)(进)(口)(的)(最)(大)(量)(中)(质)(含)(硫)(原)(油)(。据)(了)(解)(,我)(国)(从)(中)(东)(原)(油)(进)(口)(的)(基)(准)(价)(主)(要)(参)(考)(普)(氏)(阿)(曼)(/迪)(拜)(均)(价)(的)(平)(均)(价)(,从)(西)(非)(国)(家)(原)(油)(进)(口)(参)(照)(布)(伦)(特)(。目)(前)(,我)(国)(原)(油)(对)(外)(依)(存)(度)(超)(过)(65%,天)(然)(气)(对)(外)(依)(存)(度)(超)(过)(30%,并)(且)(还)(存)(在)(继)(续)(走)(高)(的)(趋)(势)(。随)(着)(我)(国)(原)(油)(需)(求)(对)(国)(外)(原)(油)(市)(场)(的)(依)(赖)(与)(日)(俱)(增)(,我)(国)(原)(油)(进)(口)(价)(格)(深)(受)(国)(际)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(期)(货)(市)(场)(价)(格)(的)(影)(响)(。在)(此)(背)(景)(下)(,我)(国)(应)(继)(续)(加)(大)(投)(入)(力)(度)(,加)(快)(推)(进)(原)(油)(国)(家)(战)(略)(储)(备)(设)(施)(建)(设)(,同)(时)(增)(加)(企)(业)(商)(业)(储)(备)(设)(施)(建)(设)(力)(度)(,增)(强)(原)(油)(商)(业)(储)(存)(能)(力)(,降)(低)(国)(际)(能)(源)(市)(场)(波)(动)(对)(我)(国)(经)(济)(的)(影)(响)(。此)(外)(,要)(加)(强)(与)(“一)(带)(一)(路)(”沿)(线)(国)(家)(能)(源)(领)(域)(合)(作)(,丰)(富)(我)(国)(能)(源)(进)(口)(来)(源)(,应)(对)(复)(杂)(能)(源)(地)(缘)(形)(势)(。另)(外)(,随)(着)(国)(际)(能)(源)(结)(构)(的)(日)(趋)(变)(化)(,还)(应)(实)(现)(进)(口)(能)(源)(的)(多)(元)(化)(。比)(如)(加)(大)(对)(天)(然)(气)(等)(清)(洁)(能)(源)(的)(进)(口)(比)(重)(。作)(为)(低)(碳)(能)(源)(,与)(煤)(、石)(油)(等)(化)(石)(能)(源)(相)(比)(,天)(然)(气)(更)(加)(清)(洁)(高)(效)(;与)(可)(再)(生)(能)(源)(相)(比)(,天)(然)(气)(供)(应)(更)(加)(稳)(定)(,模)(式)(更)(加)(成)(熟)(。今)(年)(以)(来)(,我)(国)(天)(然)(气)(消)(费)(呈)(现)(爆)(发)(式)(增)(长)(。国)(家)(发)(改)(委)(最)(新)(发)(布)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,2017年)(上)(半)(年)(,我)(国)(天)(然)(气)(消)(费)(量)(1146亿)(立)(方)(米)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(15.2%。另)(据)(国)(际)(能)(源)(署)(最)(新)(发)(布)(的)(报)(告)(预)(测)(,未)(来)(五)(年)(,全)(球)(天)(然)(气)(需)(求)(增)(长)(90%来)(自)(发)(展)(中)(国)(家)(,其)(中)(中)(国)(占)(到)(40%。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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