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A股危机全解读

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月25日 04:29:52
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(  本)(刊)(记)(者)(王)(晓)(璐)(曲)(艳)(丽)(陆)(玲)(本)(刊)(研)(究)(员)(杨)(秀)(红)(/文)(
  用)(惊)(心)(动)(魄)(、伤)(筋)(动)(骨)(,形)(容)(中)(国)(内)(地)(股)(市)(6月)(末)(、7月)(初)(的)(两)(周)(,毫)(不)(为)(过)(。监)(管)(与)(市)(场)(强)(势)(博)(弈)(,多)(头)(与)(空)(头)(激)(烈)(对)(决)(,最)(终)(未)(能)(阻)(止)(A股)(加)(速)(下)(跌)(,空)(前)(“股)(灾)(”焦)(灼)(亿)(万)(股)(民)(,重)(创)(国)(民)(财)(富)(,能)(否)(强)(力)(救)(市)(,监)(管)(部)(门)(倍)(感)(压)(力)(。
  7月)(4日)(上)(午)(,证)(监)(会)(召)(集)(21家)(券)(商)(负)(责)(人)(商)(讨)(对)(策)(,决)(定)(以)(21家)(证)(券)(公)(司)(6月)(底)(净)(资)(产)(15%出)(资)(,合)(计)(不)(低)(于)(1200亿)(元)(,用)(于)(投)(资)(蓝)(筹)(股)(ETF。21家)(证)(券)(公)(司)(同)(时)(承)(诺)(,上)(证)(综)(指)(在)(4500点)(以)(下)(,证)(券)(公)(司)(自)(营)(股)(票)(盘)(不)(减)(持)(。一)(些)(机)(构)(还)(建)(议)(设)(立)(平)(准)(基)(金)(以)(稳)(定)(股)(市)(,IPO发)(行)(也)(应)(暂)(缓)(,给)(股)(市)(以)(喘)(息)(。
  一)(个)(月)(前)(还)(十)(分)(亢)(奋)(的)(A股)(,从)(6月)(中)(旬)(开)(始)(,14个)(交)(易)(日)(内)(暴)(跌)(近)(30%,一)(场)(恐)(慌)(式)(的)(股)(市)(灾)(难)(正)(在)(上)(演)(。即)(便)(最)(乐)(观)(的)(投)(资)(者)(也)(在)(动)(摇)(对)(此)(前)(热)(闹)(的)(“改)(革)(牛)(”、“国)(家)(牛)(”行)(情)(信)(心)(。
  证)(券)(监)(管)(部)(门)(意)(图)(降)(低)(市)(场)(风)(险)(的)(某)(些)(重)(要)(举)(措)(,未)(能)(挽)(救)(市)(场)(,反)(而)(像)(打)(开)(了)(潘)(多)(拉)(魔)(盒)(,沪)(深)(股)(市)(指)(数)(迅)(疾)(下)(挫)(,前)(所)(未)(有)(的)(杠)(杆)(牛)(市)(回)(调)(威)(力)(,让)(各)(方)(始)(料)(未)(及)(。
  6月)(19日)(,上)(证)(综)(指)(重)(挫)(6.2%,超)(2000只)(个)(股)(下)(跌)(,已)(经)(创)(下)(全)(球)(市)(场)(下)(挫)(的)(奇)(观)(;6月)(26日)(,上)(证)(综)(指)(再)(暴)(跌)(7.3%,此)(后)(市)(场)(加)(速)(下)(跌)(。
  即)(便)(在)(诸)(多)(利)(好)(政)(策)(下)(,在)(有)(关)(方)(面)(组)(织)(资)(金)(明)(显)(托)(市)(的)(7月)(2日)(和)(7月)(3日)(,“救)(市)(”仍)(未)(奏)(效)(。上)(证)(综)(指)(一)(度)(击)(穿)(3700点)(,代)(表)(新)(兴)(产)(业)(的)(创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(从)(最)(高)(的)(4037点)(调)(整)(至)(2600点)(附)(近)(,市)(场)(人)(士)(感)(叹)(,行)(情)(可)(谓)(“惨)(烈)(至)(极)(”。统)(计)(表)(明)(,沪)(深)(两)(市)(下)(跌)(失)(去)(的)(财)(富)(超)(过)(15万)(亿)(元)(人)(民)(币)(,是)(希)(腊)(2014年)(GDP总)(值)(的)(10倍)(多)(。
  按)(照)(国)(际)(惯)(例)(,股)(市)(指)(数)(回)(调)(超)(过)(20%即)(入)(熊)(市)(,中)(国)(内)(地)(A股)(行)(情)(在)(短)(短)(几)(个)(交)(易)(日)(内)(逆)(转)(,代)(价)(之)(沉)(重)(前)(所)(未)(有)(。
  由)(充)(裕)(流)(动)(性)(催)(生)(、改)(革)(预)(期)(和)(新)(兴)(互)(联)(网)(经)(济)(等)(概)(念)(推)(动)(的)(中)(国)(新)(一)(轮)(牛)(市)(重)(挫)(,让)(A股)(投)(资)(者)(首)(次)(领)(略)(了)(“杠)(杆)(牛)(”的)(疯)(狂)(与)(恐)(慌)(。在)(指)(数)(一)(路)(高)(歌)(猛)(进)(的)(过)(程)(中)(被)(掩)(盖)(的)(风)(险)(逐)(渐)(暴)(露)(,各)(路)(资)(金)(夺)(路)(而)(逃)(,上)(演)(着)(罕)(见)(的)(股)(市)(“大)(逃)(亡)(”。
  曾)(憧)(憬)(服)(务)(实)(体)(经)(济)(结)(构)(转)(型)(、推)(动)(中)(国)(万)(众)(创)(新)(的)(沪)(深)(资)(本)(市)(场)(,正)(成)(为)(各)(种)(利)(益)(的)(“围)(猎)(场)(”。数)(日)(来)(比)(较)(一)(致)(的)(分)(析)(认)(为)(,在)(内)(地)(市)(场)(资)(金)(面)(极)(度)(宽)(松)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,股)(票)(供)(给)(却)(十)(分)(有)(限)(,加)(上)(监)(管)(手)(段)(滞)(后)(、监)(管)(存)(在)(盲)(区)(、市)(场)(机)(制)(不)(完)(善)(、媒)(体)(及)(投)(资)(者)(的)(非)(理)(性)(等)(因)(素)(,A股)(的)(泡)(沫)(不)(断)(被)(吹)(大)(。
  更)(多)(的)(批)(评)(则)(指)(向)(证)(券)(监)(管)(部)(门)(,认)(为)(证)(券)(监)(管)(部)(门)(在)(主)(动)(降)(低)(市)(场)(风)(险)(时)(,对)(整)(个)(形)(势)(的)(判)(断)(出)(现)(了)(某)(些)(偏)(差)(,在)(缺)(乏)(统)(筹)(协)(调)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,盲)(目)(去)(杠)(杆)(和)(救)(市)(,仓)(促)(应)(对)(导)(致)(事)(与)(愿)(违)(,金)(融)(风)(险)(未)(能)(及)(时)(化)(解)(。
  一)(位)(长)(期)(研)(究)(资)(本)(市)(场)(的)(人)(士)(说)(,当)(风)(险)(不)(断)(增)(加)(时)(,金)(融)(监)(管)(部)(门)(应)(果)(断)(出)(手)(,但)(当)(风)(险)(已)(经)(积)(聚)(的)(时)(候)(,则)(应)(采)(用)(更)(柔)(和)(的)(监)(管)(手)(段)(,而)(不)(是)(强)(行)(刺)(破)(泡)(沫)(,否)(则)(对)(市)(场)(的)(伤)(害)(很)(大)(,修)(复)(更)(加)(困)(难)(。
  经)(历)(A股)(多)(年)(起)(伏)(的)(分)(析)(人)(士)(则)(提)(醒)(,这)(次)(中)(国)(内)(地)(“股)(灾)(”,对)(投)(资)(者)(是)(极)(为)(重)(要)(的)(风)(险)(教)(育)(课)(,大)(家)(必)(须)(清)(醒)(认)(知)(:没)(有)(一)(味)(只)(涨)(不)(跌)(的)(市)(场)(,严)(重)(背)(离)(基)(本)(面)(的)(股)(票)(迟)(早)(会)(大)(幅)(回)(调)(。
  对)(监)(管)(者)(而)(言)(,市)(场)(人)(士)(认)(为)(,他)(们)(需)(要)(思)(考)(更)(多)(,并)(切)(实)(改)(进)(监)(管)(水)(平)(。
  面)(对)(日)(趋)(复)(杂)(的)(证)(券)(市)(场)(,现)(有)(的)(监)(管)(理)(念)(显)(然)(跟)(不)(上)(市)(场)(的)(变)(化)(,第)(一)(次)(面)(对)(有)(杠)(杆)(的)(牛)(市)(更)(是)(准)(备)(不)(足)(;目)(前)(的)(监)(管)(格)(局)(,显)(然)(无)(法)(统)(观)(全)(局)(,对)(场)(外)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(入)(市)(及)(破)(坏)(力)(准)(备)(不)(足)(,需)(要)(更)(有)(全)(局)(性)(的)(监)(管)(措)(施)(;所)(谓)(“国)(家)(牛)(市)(”的)(概)(念)(,以)(及)(由)(此)(带)(来)(的)(股)(票)(市)(场)(集)(体)(狂)(热)(,更)(是)(要)(不)(得)(也)(提)(不)(得)(。
  这)(是)(A股)(市)(场)(经)(历)(第)(一)(次)(大)(规)(模)(的)(高)(杠)(杆)(危)(机)(,市)(场)(复)(杂)(性)(和)(严)(峻)(性)(,暴)(露)(了)(监)(管)(者)(的)(行)(动)(失)(当)(和)(全)(市)(场)(的)(价)(值)(混)(乱)(,改)(革)(刻)(不)(容)(缓)(
  关)(键)(一)(周)(
  从)(6月)(29日)(到)(7月)(3日)(,A股)(市)(场)(惊)(心)(动)(魄)(,其)(多)(空)(对)(决)(的)(惨)(烈)(程)(度)(足)(可)(载)(入)(中)(国)(资)(本)(市)(场)(及)(市)(场)(经)(济)(史)(册)(。
  6月)(12日)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(创)(出)(本)(轮)(5178.19点)(高)(点)(,市)(场)(狂)(热)(和)(犹)(豫)(如)(影)(随)(行)(。6月)(13日)(,证)(监)(会)(宣)(布)(严)(查)(场)(外)(配)(资)(,像)(历)(次)(市)(场)(大)(跌)(都)(有)(触)(发)(点)(一)(样)(,这)(一)(政)(策)(成)(为)(压)(垮)(本)(轮)(中)(国)(内)(地)(股)(市)(狂)(热)(的)(最)(后)(一)(根)(稻)(草)(,连)(续)(暴)(跌)(随)(即)(出)(现)(,出)(乎)(亿)(万)(投)(资)(者)(和)(投)(资)(机)(构)(意)(料)(。
  随)(后)(数)(日)(,股)(市)(剧)(烈)(震)(荡)(下)(跌)(,尤)(其)(是)(6月)(19日)(,A股)(超)(过)(2000只)(个)(股)(跌)(停)(,而)(在)(6月)(26日)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(更)(是)(重)(挫)(334点)(,下)(跌)(7.4%,收)(于)(4192.87点)(,深)(成)(指)(暴)(跌)(8.24%,创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(则)(暴)(跌)(8.9%,“股)(灾)(”由)(此)(一)(发)(不)(可)(收)(拾)(。
  当)(天)(的)(暴)(跌)(令)(市)(场)(震)(惊)(,至)(此)(,连)(续)(几)(天)(的)(大)(跌)(和)(市)(场)(巨)(幅)(波)(动)(,让)(恐)(慌)(情)(绪)(开)(始)(酝)(酿)(。从)(6月)(15日)(开)(始)(到)(26日)(,9个)(交)(易)(日)(上)(证)(指)(数)(已)(经)(跌)(去)(近)(1000点)(,但)(这)(并)(不)(是)(此)(轮)(“股)(灾)(”的)(终)(点)(。
  指)(数)(暴)(跌)(之)(下)(,投)(资)(者)(损)(失)(惨)(重)(。根)(据)(同)(花)(顺)(的)(数)(据)(统)(计)(,截)(至)(6月)(26日)(中)(午)(,沪)(深)(两)(市)(市)(值)(蒸)(发)(超)(3.3万)(亿)(元)(,近)(两)(周)(共)(蒸)(发)(12.1万)(亿)(元)(。根)(据)(此)(前)(一)(周)(投)(资)(者)(数)(量)(粗)(略)(计)(算)(,最)(近)(两)(周)(人)(均)(亏)(损)(近)(13.5万)(元)(,在)(中)(国)(内)(地)(证)(券)(市)(场)(25年)(历)(程)(上)(,这)(些)(数)(据)(均)(是)(空)(前)(的)(。
  这)(一)(天)(的)(下)(跌)(,自)(然)(引)(起)(了)(证)(券)(监)(管)(部)(门)(的)(关)(注)(。6月)(26日)(晚)(间)(,正)(值)(上)(海)(陆)(家)(嘴)(金)(融)(论)(坛)(会)(议)(期)(间)(,中)(国)(证)(监)(会)(首)(度)(对)(A股)(大)(跌)(做)(出)(回)(应)(称)(,这)(是)(市)(场)(前)(期)(过)(快)(上)(涨)(的)(自)(发)(调)(整)(,是)(市)(场)(自)(身)(运)(行)(规)(律)(的)(结)(果)(。事)(后)(证)(明)(,这)(一)(表)(态)(错)(判)(了)(市)(场)(形)(势)(,打)(破)(了)(投)(资)(者)(残)(留)(的)(希)(望)(。
  更)(实)(质)(的)(“救)(市)(”行)(动)(来)(自)(央)(行)(。6月)(27日)(,央)(行)(宣)(布)(即)(日)(起)(同)(时)(降)(息)(0.25个)(百)(分)(点)(,定)(向)(降)(准)(0.5个)(百)(分)(点)(。央)(行)(双)(降)(政)(策)(超)(出)(市)(场)(预)(期)(,有)(利)(于)(在)(情)(绪)(面)(上)(稳)(定)(市)(场)(信)(心)(。市)(场)(人)(士)(普)(遍)(认)(为)(,接)(下)(来)(的)(周)(一)((6月)(29日)()将)(会)(是)(被)(这)(些)(重)(大)(利)(好)(政)(策)(稳)(住)(的)(一)(个)(交)(易)(日)(,“股)(灾)(”或)(可)(到)(此)(为)(止)(。
  但)(被)(认)(为)(极)(为)(关)(键)(扭)(转)(“股)(灾)(”的)(6月)(29日)(,反)(而)(成)(为)(关)(键)(的)(、惊)(心)(动)(魄)(的)(“股)(灾)(”扩)(大)(化)(的)(一)(周)(起)(点)(。
  6月)(29日)(早)(市)(开)(盘)(,沪)(深)(A股)(指)(数)(再)(次)(深)(度)(下)(探)(,盘)(中)(击)(穿)(3900点)(,下)(跌)(接)(近)(8%,虽)(然)(尾)(盘)(有)(所)(回)(升)(,但)(全)(天)(上)(证)(指)(数)(下)(跌)(3.34%,创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(继)(续)(深)(跌)(7.9%。
  央)(行)(罕)(见)(的)(双)(降)(利)(好)(未)(能)(阻)(止)(股)(市)(跌)(势)(,严)(重)(损)(伤)(了)(投)(资)(者)(信)(心)(,市)(场)(期)(待)(更)(大)(的)(利)(好)(政)(策)(。当)(晚)(,证)(监)(会)(连)(夜)(答)(记)(者)(问)(安)(抚)(市)(场)(情)(绪)(,认)(为)(回)(调)(过)(快)(对)(市)(场)(不)(利)(,宣)(布)(融)(资)(融)(券)(稳)(健)(,经)(得)(起)(回)(调)(检)(验)(,而)(证)(监)(会)(能)(看)(得)(到)(的)(场)(外)(配)(资)(规)(模)(也)(在)(可)(控)(范)(围)(。
  同)(时)(,多)(年)(犹)(豫)(不)(前)(的)(养)(老)(金)(入)(市)(消)(息)(释)(放)(。养)(老)(基)(金)(进)(入)(股)(市)(的)(通)(道)(原)(则)(上)(打)(开)(,测)(算)(表)(明)(,未)(来)(可)(流)(入)(股)(市)(的)(资)(金)(理)(论)(值)(在)(1.05万)(亿)(元)(左)(右)(。
  如)(此)(实)(质)(性)(利)(好)(,刺)(激)(了)(第)(二)(天)((6月)(30日)()股)(市)(少)(有)(的)(巨)(幅)(反)(弹)(,早)(盘)(上)(证)(指)(数)(一)(度)(跌)(200多)(点)(,随)(后)(在)(中)(央)(汇)(金)(公)(司)(百)(亿)(级)(资)(金)(巨)(量)(买)(入)(四)(大)(蓝)(筹)(ETF带)(动)(下)(,沪)(深)(各)(项)(股)(指)(回)(升)(,当)(天)(上)(证)(指)(数)(大)(涨)(5.5%,震)(幅)(高)(达)(10%,创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(震)(幅)(更)(是)(超)(过)(13%,亿)(万)(投)(资)(者)(情)(绪)(颇)(受)(鼓)(舞)(。
  为)(了)(稳)(定)(市)(场)(,当)(天)(基)(金)(业)(协)(会)(组)(织)(13家)(知)(名)(的)(私)(募)(基)(金)(表)(态)(集)(体)(唱)(多)(,这)(也)(是)(绝)(无)(仅)(有)(的)(历)(史)(。大)(批)(上)(市)(公)(司)(也)(加)(入)(支)(持)(市)(场)(稳)(定)(的)(行)(列)(,大)(股)(东)(纷)(纷)(公)(告)(宣)(布)(增)(持)(公)(司)(股)(票)(。
  可)(惜)(,这)(种)(明)(显)(看)(起)(来)(有)(组)(织)(的)(唱)(多)(,反)(而)(在)(其)(后)(几)(天)(形)(成)(了)(一)(种)(如)(临)(大)(敌)(的)(态)(势)(,更)(增)(加)(了)(市)(场)(恐)(慌)(心)(理)(,导)(致)(更)(多)(卖)(盘)(出)(现)(。
  7月)(1日)(,沪)(深)(股)(市)(在)(横)(盘)(震)(荡)(之)(后)(,尾)(盘)(再)(次)(出)(现)(快)(速)(下)(跌)(,当)(天)(上)(证)(指)(数)(下)(跌)(5.23%,创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(下)(跌)(3.47%,震)(幅)(超)(过)(9%,市)(场)(恐)(慌)(情)(绪)(再)(度)(蔓)(延)(。
  当)(晚)(,证)(监)(会)(连)(夜)(再)(发)(出)(三)(大)(利)(好)(:沪)(深)(交)(易)(所)(将)(自)(8月)(1日)(起)(将)(A股)(交)(易)(费)(下)(调)(三)(成)(;券)(商)(自)(主)(决)(定)(强)(制)(平)(仓)(线)(不)(再)(设)(六)(个)(月)(的)(强)(制)(还)(款)(;允)(许)(所)(有)(证)(券)(公)(司)(发)(行)(与)(转)(让)(证)(券)(公)(司)(短)(期)(公)(司)(债)(券)(,从)(而)(拓)(宽)(证)(券)(公)(司)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(。
  即)(便)(如)(此)(,前)(期)(获)(利)(和)(去)(杠)(杆)(的)(资)(金)(仍)(组)(成)(了)(巨)(大)(的)(抛)(压)(盘)(。在)(有)(明)(显)(政)(府)(资)(金)(吸)(收)(大)(权)(重)(类)(金)(融)(和)(石)(油)(石)(化)(股)(筹)(码)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,沪)(深)(两)(市)(仍)(连)(续)(出)(现)(大)(幅)(下)(跌)(,到)(7月)(3日)((周)(五)(),经)(过)(两)(天)(分)(别)(下)(跌)(3.48%和)(5.77%之)(后)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(已)(经)(下)(跌)(到)(3700点)(以)(下)(,离)(本)(轮)(高)(点)(已)(相)(差)(1400点)(以)(上)(,“股)(灾)(”无)(可)(置)(疑)(,市)(场)(惊)(魂)(不)(定)(。
  从)(7月)(1日)(开)(始)(,各)(种)(“阴)(谋)(论)(”也)(甚)(嚣)(尘)(上)(,尤)(其)(是)(借)(助)(微)(信)(等)(社)(交)(媒)(体)(平)(台)(广)(为)(流)(传)(。有)(人)(将)(下)(跌)(怪)(罪)(于)(前)(期)(喊)(出)(市)(场)(危)(险)(的)(理)(性)(之)(士)(,还)(有)(说)(法)(认)(为)(是)(外)(资)(蓄)(意)(砸)(盘)(,甚)(至)(有)(人)(喊)(出)(为)(国)(而)(战)(。在)(经)(历)(多)(年)(股)(市)(变)(动)(的)(投)(资)(界)(人)(士)(看)(来)(,中)(国)(内)(地)(股)(市)(被)(浮)(躁)(而)(混)(乱)(的)(恐)(慌)(情)(绪)(所)(笼)(罩)(,本)(就)(不)(多)(的)(理)(性)(声)(音)(被)(淹)(没)(在)(一)(片)(抱)(怨)(、悲)(观)(中)(,沪)(深)(股)(市)(走)(到)(了)(25年)(来)(新)(的)(危)(险)(时)(刻)(。
  金)(融)(监)(管)(部)(门)(的)(重)(视)(程)(度)(由)(此)(提)(高)(,但)(相)(关)(应)(对)(举)(措)(亦)(引)(发)(争)(议)(和)(解)(读)(分)(歧)(。7月)(2日)(,证)(监)(会)(决)(定)(对)(跨)(市)(场)(操)(纵)(的)(行)(为)(组)(织)(专)(项)(核)(查)(,意)(图)(通)(过)(此)(举)(减)(缓)(股)(指)(期)(货)(市)(场)(的)(做)(空)(动)(能)(。同)(日)(,央)(行)(行)(长)(周)(小)(川)(表)(态)(,牢)(牢)(守)(住)(不)(发)(生)(系)(统)(性)(区)(域)(性)(金)(融)(风)(险)(的)(底)(线)(。这)(些)(重)(要)(表)(态)(,均)(被)(市)(场)(视)(为)(是)(监)(管)(部)(门)(为)(金)(融)(稳)(定)(的)(努)(力)(。
  但)(连)(日)(来)(监)(管)(部)(门)(相)(关)(政)(策)(被)(市)(场)(无)(情)(教)(训)(,上)(述)(举)(措)(也)(未)(提)(振)(市)(场)(信)(心)(,7月)(3日)(沪)(深)(两)(市)(继)(续)(以)(暴)(跌)(收)(场)(。
  在)(叫)(停)(多)(个)(做)(空)(股)(指)(期)(货)(账)(户)(后)(,7月)(3日)(晚)(证)(监)(会)(宣)(布)(,将)(减)(少)(IPO家)(数)(和)(将)(筹)(集)(资)(金)(,并)(要)(注)(资)(中)(国)(证)(券)(金)(融)(股)(份)(有)(限)(公)(司)(,从)(240亿)(元)(增)(资)(至)(1000亿)(元)(。QFII额)(度)(将)(从)(800亿)(美)(元)(调)(整)(至)(1500亿)(美)(元)(,意)(图)(引)(导)(海)(外)(资)(金)(入)(市)(。
  期)(现)(联)(动)(
  在)(很)(多)(市)(场)(人)(士)(看)(来)(,此)(轮)(“股)(灾)(”破)(坏)(性)(空)(前)(,因)(为)(沪)(深)(股)(市)(的)(多)(层)(次)(结)(构)(已)(非)(昔)(日)(可)(比)(,现)(货)(市)(场)(之)(外)(,期)(货)(市)(场)(震)(荡)(更)(令)(人)(担)(忧)(,这)(也)(被)(普)(遍)(认)(为)(是)(本)(轮)(“股)(灾)(”的)(重)(要)(诱)(因)(。
  沪)(深)(A股)(的)(连)(日)(暴)(跌)(,引)(发)(了)(中)(国)(内)(地)(股)(市)(指)(数)(期)(货)(市)(场)(巨)(大)(的)(套)(保)(卖)(盘)(,由)(此)(形)(成)(了)(巨)(大)(的)(期)(现)(基)(差)(,备)(受)(市)(场)(关)(注)(,期)(货)(和)(现)(货)(市)(场)(形)(成)(了)(相)(互)(带)(动)(下)(跌)(的)(局)(面)(。这)(是)(此)(前)(沪)(深)(股)(市)(历)(次)(下)(跌)(所)(未)(出)(现)(的)(严)(峻)(局)(面)(。
  7月)(1日)(,沪)(深)(股)(市)(期)(指)(尾)(盘)(出)(现)(大)(跳)(水)(,中)(证)(500期)(指)(全)(部)(跌)(停)(震)(惊)(市)(场)(,截)(至)(收)(盘)(,中)(证)(500期)(指)(全)(部)(跌)(停)(,沪)(深)(300期)(指)(大)(跌)(7.36%,上)(证)(50期)(指)(跌)(5.32%。
  股)(指)(期)(货)(大)(幅)(跳)(水)(以)(及)(期)(现)(的)(贴)(水)(表)(现)(,引)(发)(了)(市)(场)(“外)(资)(在)(期)(指)(市)(场)(恶)(意)(做)(空)(”的)(传)(闻)(。中)(金)(所)(回)(应)(称)(,包)(括)(高)(盛)(在)(内)(的)(QFII、RQFII在)(股)(指)(期)(货)(中)(只)(能)(做)(套)(保)(交)(易)(,这)(些)(机)(构)(近)(期)(在)(股)(指)(期)(货)(市)(场)(的)(套)(保)(交)(易)(符)(合)(规)(则)(,没)(有)(所)(谓)(的)(大)(幅)(做)(空)(行)(为)(。
  7月)(2日)(,证)(监)(会)(决)(定)(对)(跨)(市)(场)(操)(纵)(的)(行)(为)(组)(织)(专)(项)(核)(查)(,意)(图)(通)(过)(此)(举)(减)(缓)(股)(指)(期)(货)(市)(场)(的)(做)(空)(动)(能)(。
  在)(最)(初)(的)(制)(度)(设)(计)(中)(,监)(管)(层)(希)(望)(股)(指)(期)(货)(发)(挥)(价)(值)(发)(现)(的)(重)(要)(功)(能)(,在)(极)(端)(市)(况)(下)(可)(以)(作)(为)(投)(资)(者)(的)(对)(冲)(工)(具)(,从)(其)(他)(市)(场)(的)(实)(践)(来)(看)(,若)(善)(加)(利)(用)(,股)(指)(期)(货)(作)(为)(一)(个)(整)(体)(,能)(有)(效)(避)(免)(个)(股)(在)(做)(多)(做)(空)(时)(流)(动)(性)(不)(足)(的)(问)(题)(。
  可)(惜)(的)(是)(,由)(于)(配)(套)(制)(度)(并)(不)(完)(善)(,加)(上)(投)(资)(者)(并)(不)(成)(熟)(,股)(指)(期)(货)(未)(能)(在)(此)(次)(A股)(震)(荡)(中)(发)(挥)(其)(积)(极)(作)(用)(。
  在)(本)(轮)(沪)(深)(股)(市)(快)(速)(上)(涨)(过)(程)(中)(,相)(当)(数)(量)(的)(公)(募)(基)(金)(扎)(堆)(创)(业)(板)(,一)(家)(基)(金)(公)(司)(多)(只)(基)(金)(集)(中)(持)(仓)(的)(现)(象)(明)(显)(,等)(到)(市)(场)(回)(调)(,公)(募)(基)(金)(面)(临)(赎)(回)(压)(力)(需)(要)(减)(仓)(时)(,却)(无)(法)(出)(货)(,于)(是)(纷)(纷)(选)(择)(了)(中)(证)(500期)(指)(进)(行)(对)(冲)(,从)(而)(引)(发)(连)(锁)(反)(应)(,加)(剧)(了)(股)(市)(下)(跌)(。
  遇)(到)(大)(跌)(行)(情)(,在)(中)(小)(盘)(股)(无)(法)(卖)(出)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,中)(证)(500期)(货)(成)(为)(泄)(洪)(的)(通)(道)(。IC标)(的)(股)(票)(流)(动)(性)(差)(,无)(法)(卖)(空)(,大)(量)(跌)(停)(,造)(成)(投)(资)(者)(只)(能)(用)(期)(货)(来)(做)(套)(期)(保)(值)(避)(险)(。此)(外)(,IC承)(载)(的)(不)(仅)(是)(中)(证)(500的)(对)(冲)(需)(求)(,而)(且)(还)(承)(载)(了)(中)(小)(板)(、创)(业)(板)(的)(对)(冲)(压)(力)(,是)(这)(些)(小)(盘)(股)(释)(放)(风)(险)(的)(唯)(一)(出)(口)(。
  7月)(3日)(,沪)(深)(股)(市)(期)(指)(高)(开)(后)(大)(幅)(下)(挫)(,带)(动)(现)(货)(市)(场)(继)(续)(深)(跌)(,盘)(中)(市)(场)(传)(闻)(中)(金)(所)(关)(闭)(了)(19个)(期)(指)(做)(空)(账)(户)(,市)(场)(出)(现)(反)(弹)(,但)(下)(午)(股)(指)(继)(续)(回)(调)(,当)(中)(小)(盘)(股)(纷)(纷)(跌)(停)(后)(,大)(盘)(蓝)(筹)(股)(下)(挫)(,上)(证)(综)(指)(下)(跌)(超)(过)(6%。
  北)(京)(一)(位)(中)(型)(券)(商)(衍)(生)(品)(负)(责)(人)(说)(,限)(制)(期)(指)(的)(做)(空)(机)(制)(,暴)(露)(出)(监)(管)(层)(对)(股)(市)(缺)(乏)(实)(质)(性)(把)(握)(,一)(旦)(期)(指)(无)(法)(对)(冲)(,只)(能)(卖)(股)(票)(,小)(股)(票)(卖)(不)(掉)(就)(卖)(大)(股)(票)(,结)(果)(造)(成)(从)(垃)(圾)(股)(到)(蓝)(筹)(股)(的)(全)(面)(下)(跌)(,当)(天)(市)(场)(的)(盘)(面)(已)(经)(反)(映)(出)(这)(个)(问)(题)(的)(严)(重)(性)(。
  链)(式)(反)(应)(
  沪)(深)(股)(市)(创)(立)(25年)(来)(,“股)(灾)(”并)(非)(首)(次)(出)(现)(,但)(这)(轮)(市)(场)(暴)(跌)(令)(监)(管)(层)(和)(投)(资)(者)(心)(惊)(胆)(战)(的)(一)(个)(重)(要)(区)(别)(是)(:“杠)(杆)(市)(”的)(正)(向)(和)(反)(向)(威)(力)(超)(乎)(想)(象)(。
  投)(资)(者)(呼)(吁)(强)(烈)(的)(是)(,市)(场)(急)(跌)(首)(先)(冲)(击)(的)(就)(是)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(,产)(生)(“暴)(跌)(-强)(平)(-再)(暴)(跌)(-更)(大)(规)(模)(平)(仓)(”的)(链)(式)(反)(应)(,且)(惯)(性)(巨)(大)(,难)(以)(刹)(车)(,这)(是)(沪)(深)(股)(市)(此)(前)(未)(出)(现)(的)(情)(况)(。
  更)(令)(监)(管)(者)(和)(投)(资)(者)(胆)(寒)(的)(是)(,此)(轮)(股)(市)(上)(涨)(过)(程)(中)(,场)(外)(配)(资)(野)(蛮)(生)(长)(,尤)(以)(伞)(形)(配)(资)(和)(P2P配)(资)(最)(为)(盛)(行)(,由)(此)(带)(来)(的)(市)(场)(变)(数)(和)(监)(管)(挑)(战)(均)(是)(空)(前)(的)(。
  申)(万)(宏)(源)(策)(略)(报)(告)(估)(算)(,场)(外)(配)(资)(规)(模)(存)(量)(约)(为)(1.7万)(亿)(-2万)(亿)(元)(左)(右)(,其)(中)(银)(行)(理)(财)(资)(金)(存)(量)(约)(为)(7000亿)(-8000亿)(元)(。但)(相)(关)(规)(模)(究)(竟)(有)(多)(大)(,迄)(今)(不)(见)(金)(融)(监)(管)(部)(门)(的)(权)(威)(数)(据)(披)(露)(,这)(也)(是)(令)(市)(场)(在)(下)(跌)(中)(惊)(疑)(不)(定)(的)(一)(个)(重)(要)(因)(素)(。
  越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(事)(实)(暴)(露)(,令)(监)(管)(者)(和)(投)(资)(者)(大)(吸)(凉)(气)(:相)(比)(场)(内)(的)(融)(资)(融)(券)(杠)(杆)(最)(高)(1∶1的)(比)(例)(,场)(外)(信)(托)(公)(司)(的)(伞)(形)(配)(资)(裹)(挟)(着)(银)(行)(理)(财)(资)(金)(入)(市)(,杠)(杆)(可)(以)(达)(到)(1∶2甚)(至)(1∶3。而)(场)(外)(配)(资)(的)(审)(批)(快)(、高)(杠)(杆)(的)(特)(点)(,使)(得)(大)(量)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(得)(以)(入)(市)(。
  最)(近)(两)(年)(来)(风)(生)(水)(起)(的)(互)(联)(网)(金)(融)(,也)(在)(本)(轮)(股)(市)(上)(涨)(过)(程)(中)(起)(到)(了)(让)(人)(意)(外)(的)(作)(用)(。P2P平)(台)(并)(未)(如)(此)(前)(各)(方)(面)(所)(期)(待)(的)(成)(为)(金)(融)(和)(实)(体)(经)(济)(的)(新)(型)(连)(接)(体)(,而)(是)(在)(股)(市)(逐)(步)(上)(涨)(行)(情)(中)(成)(为)(信)(托)(夹)(层)(,更)(广)(泛)(的)(是)(单)(独)(为)(个)(体)(投)(资)(者)(配)(资)(。
  作)(为)(影)(子)(配)(资)(的)(典)(型)(,这)(一)(模)(式)(在)(两)(年)(之)(内)(规)(模)(迅)(速)(膨)(胀)(。通)(过)(P2P平)(台)(配)(资)(,基)(本)(没)(有)(资)(金)(的)(门)(槛)(,通)(过)(平)(台)(申)(请)(账)(号)(,最)(快)(一)(天)(就)(可)(以)(完)(成)(配)(资)(,配)(资)(比)(例)(甚)(至)(高)(达)(1∶8,资)(金)(杠)(杆)(水)(平)(之)(高)(,即)(使)(是)(经)(过)(金)(融)(危)(机)(的)(华)(尔)(街)(也)(为)(之)(侧)(目)(,但)(监)(管)(层)(和)(投)(资)(者)(对)(此)(的)(真)(正)(认)(识)(颇)(为)(滞)(后)(。
  在)(过)(去)(一)(年)(里)(,这)(些)(场)(外)(配)(资)(多)(通)(过)(设)(立)(平)(仓)(警)(示)(线)(和)(平)(仓)(线)(保)(证)(风)(控)(,在)(达)(到)(一)(定)(的)(下)(跌)(幅)(度)(后)(,配)(资)(公)(司)(有)(强)(行)(将)(投)(资)(者)(持)(有)(的)(股)(票)(卖)(出)(的)(权)(力)(。假)(设)(平)(仓)(线)(设)(置)(在)(110%,在)(1∶2.5的)(杠)(杆)(下)(,亏)(损)(21.4%才)(触)(及)(平)(仓)(。若)(杠)(杆)(达)(到)(1∶5,那)(么)(资)(金)(亏)(损)(8.3%就)(将)(触)(及)(平)(仓)(,而)(在)(1∶9的)(极)(端)(高)(杠)(杆)(比)(例)(下)(,出)(现)(少)(量)(亏)(损)(就)(触)(及)(平)(仓)(线)(。这)(样)(的)(高)(杠)(杆)(,很)(难)(承)(受)(住)(市)(场)(的)(波)(动)(。
  米)(牛)(网)(联)(合)(创)(始)(人)(柳)(阳)(告)(诉)(《财)(经)(》记)(者)(,因)(为)(平)(仓)(账)(户)(数)(量)(的)(增)(加)(,每)(晚)(都)(要)(加)(班)(忙)(于)(平)(仓)(后)(的)(沟)(通)(工)(作)(。6月)(30日)(大)(跌)(当)(天)(,米)(牛)(网)(平)(了)(6%的)(账)(户)(,涉)(及)(资)(金)(8000万)(元)(左)(右)(。柳)(阳)(坦)(言)(,这)(种)(行)(情)(给)(其)(风)(控)(带)(来)(了)(巨)(大)(的)(压)(力)(。
  据)(《财)(经)(》调)(查)(,6月)(19日)(暴)(跌)(之)(后)(,大)(量)(1∶5以)(上)(杠)(杆)(的)(配)(资)(盘)(爆)(仓)(被)(强)(平)(;在)(央)(行)(降)(息)(、降)(准)(前)(的)(一)(周)(,1∶4杠)(杆)(爆)(仓)(,甚)(至)(危)(及)(1∶3杠)(杆)(的)(投)(资)(者)(,这)(些)(连)(锁)(反)(应)(均)(是)(灾)(难)(性)(的)(。
  调)(查)(表)(明)(,此)(轮)(沪)(深)(股)(市)(场)(外)(配)(资)(的)(加)(速)(入)(场)(大)(约)(发)(生)(在)(今)(年)(3月)(至)(5月)(份)(,正)(是)(沪)(深)(指)(数)(上)(涨)(最)(快)(速)(的)(时)(候)(,在)(指)(数)(高)(点)(配)(资)(入)(场)(的)(投)(资)(者)(,面)(对)(本)(次)(超)(过)(千)(点)(的)(暴)(跌)(,难)(逃)(被)(强)(行)(平)(仓)(的)(命)(运)(。
  与)(场)(外)(配)(资)(大)(部)(分)(资)(金)(入)(市)(较)(晚)(不)(同)(,券)(商)(融)(资)(融)(券)(余)(额)(到)(6月)(市)(场)(调)(整)(前)(有)(2.27万)(亿)(元)(,其)(中)(超)(过)(一)(半)(余)(额)(发)(生)(在)(今)(年)(1月)(之)(前)(。
  即)(便)(如)(此)(,这)(轮)(市)(场)(跌)(下)(来)(后)(,券)(商)(融)(资)(业)(务)(的)(平)(仓)(压)(力)(也)(开)(始)(不)(断)(增)(加)(,以)(1∶1的)(杠)(杆)(融)(资)(,130%的)(平)(仓)(线)(计)(算)(,只)(要)(标)(的)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(35%,就)(达)(到)(平)(仓)(线)(,在)(大)(盘)(自)(高)(点)(滑)(落)(过)(程)(中)(,目)(前)(许)(多)(个)(股)(跌)(幅)(已)(经)(超)(过)(35%,“股)(灾)(”呈)(现)(大)(面)(积)(之)(势)(。
  国)(泰)(君)(安)(首)(席)(宏)(观)(分)(析)(师)(任)(泽)(平)(称)(,这)(就)(是)(杠)(杆)(市)(调)(整)(带)(来)(的)(连)(锁)(反)(应)(,“高)(杠)(杆)(的)(场)(外)(配)(资)(首)(先)(爆)(仓)(,带)(来)(多)(米)(诺)(骨)(牌)(效)(应)(。按)(照)(杠)(杆)(比)(例)(大)(小)(,从)(场)(外)(配)(资)(、伞)(形)(信)(托)(到)(两)(融)(依)(次)(下)(降)(。”
  据)(其)(估)(算)(,截)(至)(今)(年)(7月)(初)(,在)(上)(证)(指)(数)(5000点)(左)(右)(建)(仓)(的)(场)(外)(配)(资)(已)(基)(本)(被)(清)(理)(,4500点)(建)(仓)(的)(大)(半)(已)(触)(及)(平)(仓)(线)(;如)(果)(市)(场)(继)(续)(调)(整)(,伞)(形)(信)(托)(和)(两)(融)(的)(配)(资)(风)(险)(将)(依)(次)(暴)(露)(。
  北)(京)(一)(家)(券)(商)(两)(融)(业)(务)(负)(责)(人)(说)(,在)(6月)(29日)(市)(场)(暴)(跌)(后)(,两)(融)(业)(务)(的)(压)(力)(并)(不)(大)(,但)(随)(着)(市)(场)(继)(续)(下)(挫)(,公)(司)(已)(经)(规)(劝)(客)(户)(主)(动)(减)(仓)(,同)(时)(融)(资)(的)(平)(仓)(压)(力)(逐)(渐)(增)(大)(。
  《财)(经)(》获)(悉)(,杠)(杆)(资)(金)(的)(平)(仓)(压)(力)(已)(经)(传)(导)(至)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(,公)(募)(基)(金)(赎)(回)(的)(压)(力)(逐)(渐)(增)(加)(。为)(了)(应)(对)(这)(种)(压)(力)(,在)(市)(场)(下)(挫)(中)(,不)(少)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(只)(能)(通)(过)(期)(指)(套)(期)(保)(值)(。
  据)(中)(金)(所)(统)(计)(,6月)(15日)(至)(7月)(2日)(,证)(券)(公)(司)(、基)(金)(公)(司)(、保)(险)(机)(构)(、信)(托)(公)(司)(、QFII及)(RQFII等)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(,前)(期)(主)(要)(以)(套)(期)(保)(值)(为)(目)(的)(,卖)(持)(仓)(规)(模)(较)(大)(。这)(也)(是)(中)(证)(500股)(指)(期)(货)(主)(力)(合)(约)(IC1507不)(断)(出)(现)(较)(大)(做)(空)(盘)(的)(主)(要)(原)(因)(。
  在)(这)(个)(过)(程)(中)(,一)(些)(与)(客)(户)(签)(订)(止)(损)(线)(的)(私)(募)(出)(现)(清)(盘)(或)(斩)(仓)(现)(象)(。7月)(3日)(,知)(名)(私)(募)(基)(金)(清)(水)(源)(旗)(下)(多)(只)(产)(品)(清)(盘)(,更)(多)(私)(募)(基)(金)(同)(样)(面)(临)(不)(小)(的)(赎)(回)(压)(力)(,投)(资)(者)(的)(结)(构)(出)(现)(裂)(变)(。
  《财)(经)(》记)(者)(接)(触)(的)(多)(数)(投)(资)(分)(析)(师)(认)(为)(,如)(果)(市)(场)(再)(度)(持)(续)(下)(跌)(,各)(种)(被)(迫)(平)(仓)(会)(不)(断)(发)(生)(,产)(生)(更)(多)(的)(卖)(单)(,这)(种)(链)(式)(反)(应)(持)(续)(下)(去)(,后)(果)(就)(不)(堪)(设)(想)(:诸)(多)(投)(资)(者)(血)(本)(无)(归)(,而)(很)(多)(投)(资)(机)(构)(也)(会)(清)(盘)(,最)(后)(会)(危)(机)(券)(商)(和)(银)(行)(,引)(发)(系)(统)(性)(金)(融)(危)(机)(。
  “配)(资)(是)(一)(个)(黑)(箱)(,没)(人)(能)(摸)(得)(清)(真)(实)(的)(规)(模)(,心)(里)(没)(底)(所)(以)(更)(为)(恐)(慌)(。”上)(海)(一)(名)(买)(方)(研)(究)(员)(对)(《财)(经)(》表)(示)(。
  疯)(牛)(何)(来)(
  面)(对)(“股)(灾)(”,反)(思)(无)(可)(回)(避)(。政)(策)(制)(定)(者)(最)(初)(期)(望)(的)(改)(革)(牛)(、慢)(牛)(,何)(以)(变)(为)(疯)(牛)(?
  一)(些)(投)(资)(界)(人)(士)(提)(醒)(,从)(2014年)(开)(始)(,中)(国)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(的)(基)(本)(面)(只)(能)(用)(疲)(弱)(形)(容)(,2015年)(一)(季)(度)(GDP增)(长)(7%,而)(2006年)(至)(2007年)(那)(轮)(牛)(市)(时)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(保)(持)(两)(位)(数)(增)(长)(、企)(业)(盈)(利)(持)(续)(增)(长)(不)(可)(同)(日)(而)(语)(,这)(或)(许)(可)(以)(解)(释)(本)(轮)(牛)(市)(根)(基)(的)(先)(天)(不)(足)(。
  不)(过)(,此)(轮)(牛)(市)(的)(资)(金)(面)(颇)(为)(充)(足)(。由)(于)(经)(济)(持)(续)(低)(迷)(,央)(行)(多)(次)(降)(准)(、降)(息)(,而)(信)(贷)(规)(模)(又)(不)(断)(放)(大)(,持)(续)(几)(年)(的)(货)(币)(投)(放)(让)(整)(个)(市)(场)(资)(金)(面)(大)(为)(宽)(松)(。
  由)(于)(实)(体)(经)(济)(投)(资)(回)(报)(率)(很)(低)(,而)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(自)(2014年)(开)(始)(出)(现)(了)(明)(显)(的)(拐)(点)(,投)(资)(预)(期)(收)(益)(不)(在)(,诸)(多)(资)(金)(转)(而)(投)(向)(流)(动)(性)(更)(强)(的)(股)(市)(。
  自)(2014年)(7月)(开)(始)(,沪)(深)(A股)(走)(出)(一)(段)(快)(速)(上)(涨)(的)(“疯)(牛)(”行)(情)(。从)(去)(年)(7月)(开)(始)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(从)(2000点)(开)(始)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(,到)(今)(年)(6月)(达)(到)(5178点)(,不)(到)(一)(年)(时)(间)(上)(涨)(近)(160%,沪)(深)(两)(市)(日)(交)(易)(额)(超)(过)(2万)(亿)(元)(,居)(全)(球)(股)(市)(之)(首)(。
  尤)(其)(令)(人)(关)(注)(的)(是)(,今)(年)(深)(圳)(创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(更)(是)(暴)(涨)(274%。创)(业)(板)(诞)(生)(了)(不)(少)(翻)(了)(数)(倍)(的)(股)(票)(,同)(时)(一)(批)(重)(仓)(创)(业)(板)(的)(公)(募)(基)(金)(表)(现)(优)(异)(,行)(业)(排)(名)(靠)(前)(。
  一)(方)(面)(,公)(募)(基)(金)(大)(举)(买)(入)(创)(业)(板)(推)(动)(了)(指)(数)(的)(涨)(幅)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(,创)(业)(板)(的)(快)(速)(上)(涨)(提)(升)(了)(基)(金)(的)(业)(绩)(排)(名)(,吸)(引)(更)(多)(的)(资)(金)(申)(购)(相)(关)(基)(金)(份)(额)(,形)(成)(“击)(鼓)(传)(花)(”式)(的)(循)(环)(。在)(此)(次)(回)(调)(前)(,创)(业)(板)(市)(场)(已)(经)(出)(现)(多)(只)(市)(盈)(率)(超)(过)(1000倍)(的)(股)(票)(。
  火)(爆)(的)(股)(市)(行)(情)(带)(来)(赚)(钱)(效)(应)(,吸)(引)(了)(大)(批)(投)(资)(者)(蜂)(拥)(入)(市)(,证)(券)(登)(记)(公)(司)(公)(布)(的)(新)(开)(户)(数)(据)(不)(断)(刷)(新)(。在)(这)(个)(过)(程)(中)(,一)(些)(官)(方)(媒)(体)(事)(实)(上)(不)(断)(推)(波)(助)(澜)(,变)(相)(鼓)(动)(更)(多)(人)(投)(身)(股)(市)(,一)(时)(间)(各)(种)(论)(调)(流)(传)(:“三)(大)(驱)(动)(因)(素)(全)(面)(改)(善)(股)(市)(巨)(量)(快)(步)(上)(行)(”、“市)(场)(的)(蓬)(勃)(向)(上)(将)(进)(一)(步)(助)(推)(经)(济)(发)(展)(”、“高)(层)(频)(繁)(关)(注)(资)(本)(市)(场)(给)(了)(股)(民)(乐)(观)(预)(期)(”,这)(类)(对)(市)(场)(乐)(观)(的)(文)(章)(持)(续)(在)(今)(年)(3月)(至)(4月)(出)(现)(,尤)(其)(是)(当)(某)(些)(官)(方)(媒)(体)(发)(出)(“4000点)(是)(牛)(市)(新)(起)(点)(”的)(论)(断)(时)(,新)(一)(轮)(全)(民)(炒)(股)(热)(情)(已)(无)(可)(阻)(挡)(,“股)(灾)(”隐)(患)(也)(就)(此)(浮)(现)(。
  在)(这)(种)(狂)(热)(中)(,全)(面)(炒)(股)(的)(情)(况)(再)(次)(出)(现)(:广)(场)(舞)(大)(妈)(谈)(论)(股)(票)(;不)(少)(大)(学)(生)(和)(中)(学)(生)(开)(户)(;甚)(至)(出)(现)(了)(全)(体)(村)(民)(炒)(股)(的)(炒)(股)(村)(;连)(某)(些)(饭)(店)(的)(厨)(师)(也)(关)(注)(股)(市)(开)(盘)(。
  社)(交)(媒)(体)(的)(便)(利)(性)(更)(推)(动)(了)(各)(种)(利)(好)(内)(幕)(消)(息)(的)(广)(泛)(传)(播)(,一)(时)(间)(似)(乎)(人)(人)(都)(有)(内)(幕)(消)(息)(,到)(处)(是)(民)(间)(股)(神)(,很)(多)(所)(谓)(内)(幕)(消)(息)(,随)(即)(在)(上)(涨)(行)(情)(中)(被)(验)(证)(有)(效)(,这)(进)(一)(步)(助)(推)(了)(数)(以)(千)(万)(计)(的)(新)(股)(民)(入)(市)(热)(情)(。
  市)(场)(人)(士)(注)(意)(到)(的)(另)(一)(个)(怪)(现)(象)(则)(是)(,近)(两)(年)(A股)(市)(场)(流)(行)(更)(名)(,变)(一)(个)(更)(时)(髦)(的)(名)(字)(就)(可)(能)(让)(股)(票)(大)(涨)(。一)(家)(主)(营)(业)(务)(已)(经)(空)(壳)(化)(的)(房)(地)(产)(公)(司)(多)(伦)(股)(份)(,在)(5月)(更)(名)(为)(带)(有)(互)(联)(网)(金)(融)(概)(念)(的)(“匹)(凸)(匹)(”之)(后)(,虽)(然)(其)(主)(业)(未)(做)(任)(何)(实)(质)(变)(化)(,且)(公)(司)(仍)(然)(亏)(损)(,但)(该)(公)(司)(在)(更)(名)(公)(告)(后)(连)(续)(六)(个)(涨)(停)(,市)(场)(人)(士)(只)(能)(感)(叹)(:疯)(了)(!
  一)(度)(以)(主)(营)(高)(端)(餐)(饮)(而)(上)(市)(的)(湘)(鄂)(情)(,更)(是)(数)(次)(更)(名)(,最)(后)(变)(为)(中)(科)(云)(网)(这)(样)(带)(有)(高)(科)(技)(含)(义)(的)(时)(髦)(名)(字)(,也)(成)(为)(推)(动)(其)(股)(价)(大)(涨)(的)(重)(要)(因)(素)(。
  随)(着)(沪)(深)(市)(场)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(,机)(构)(资)(金)(也)(不)(断)(壮)(大)(。据)(Wind资)(讯)(统)(计)(,2015年)(5月)(,通)(过)(新)(发)(行)(公)(募)(基)(金)(入)(市)(的)(资)(金)(约)(为)(2777.67亿)(元)(,较)(上)(月)(的)(2547.18亿)(元)(增)(加)(230.49亿)(元)(。
  与)(2007年)(的)(那)(轮)(牛)(市)(不)(同)(,杠)(杆)(的)(引)(入)(成)(为)(这)(次)(市)(场)(暴)(涨)(的)(重)(要)(推)(动)(器)(,尤)(其)(是)(来)(自)(券)(商)(两)(融)(和)(伞)(型)(结)(构)(化)(信)(托)(的)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(,使)(得)(超)(过)(六)(成)(的)(交)(易)(量)(来)(自)(个)(人)(投)(资)(者)(,这)(与)(最)(近)(几)(年)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(的)(发)(展)(壮)(大)(形)(成)(了)(新)(的)(反)(差)(,在)(市)(场)(分)(析)(人)(士)(看)(来)(,亦)(是)(“股)(灾)(”的)(隐)(患)(之)(一)(。
  在)(证)(券)(监)(管)(之)(外)(,场)(外)(配)(资)(资)(金)(,绝)(大)(部)(分)(来)(自)(于)(银)(行)(,通)(过)(信)(托)(、P2P等)(渠)(道)(变)(相)(流)(入)(股)(市)(。这)(在)(一)(段)(时)(间)(里)(,事)(实)(上)(未)(成)(为)(证)(券)(监)(管)(的)(重)(点)(,待)(其)(规)(模)(做)(大)(时)(,已)(经)(难)(以)(控)(制)(。
  多)(数)(分)(析)(人)(士)(认)(同)(,除)(了)(资)(金)(面)(支)(撑)(外)(,对)(改)(革)(的)(预)(期)(以)(及)(政)(府)(提)(出)(的)(“互)(联)(网)(+”、鼓)(励)(创)(业)(等)(概)(念)(,均)(为)(本)(轮)(堪)(称)(“疯)(牛)(”的)(上)(涨)(行)(情)(提)(供)(了)(某)(种)(依)(据)(,“互)(联)(网)(”、“3D”“机)(器)(人)(”,重)(组)(、增)(发)(等)(都)(被)(当)(做)(重)(要)(题)(材)(。同)(时)(,“改)(革)(牛)(”等)(新)(概)(念)(应)(运)(而)(生)(,“国)(家)(牛)(市)(”一)(度)(成)(为)(政)(策)(新)(词)(。
  国)(泰)(君)(安)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(林)(采)(宜)(认)(为)(,政)(府)(希)(望)(推)(动)(股)(市)(持)(续)(牛)(市)(,二)(级)(市)(场)(的)(高)(估)(值)(,也)(带)(动)(了)(一)(级)(市)(场)(中)(小)(企)(业)(融)(资)(,而)(国)(企)(改)(革)(和)(财)(政)(政)(策)(也)(需)(要)(牛)(市)(配)(合)(,市)(场)(的)(财)(富)(效)(应)(也)(是)(防)(通)(胀)(的)(药)(方)(。
  与)(监)(管)(者)(和)(投)(资)(者)(所)(期)(望)(的)(慢)(牛)(不)(同)(,在)(亢)(奋)(情)(绪)(和)(不)(断)(涌)(入)(的)(资)(金)(推)(动)(下)(,本)(轮)(股)(市)(上)(涨)(迅)(速)(变)(得)(疯)(狂)(,股)(灾)(随)(即)(到)(来)(。
  杠)(杆)(教)(训)(
  自)(沪)(深)(股)(市)(1990年)(创)(立)(以)(来)(,这)(是)(A股)(第)(一)(次)(经)(历)(有)(较)(大)(规)(模)(的)(杠)(杆)(危)(机)(。市)(场)(的)(复)(杂)(性)(和)(严)(峻)(性)(,暴)(露)(出)(监)(管)(者)(和)(投)(资)(者)(的)(认)(知)(分)(歧)(、行)(动)(失)(当)(和)(价)(值)(混)(乱)(,股)(灾)(破)(坏)(极)(大)(,损)(失)(可)(谓)(惨)(重)(。
  《财)(经)(》记)(者)(采)(访)(的)(多)(位)(投)(资)(界)(权)(威)(人)(士)(认)(为)(,回)(溯)(本)(轮)(股)(市)(的)(暴)(涨)(暴)(跌)(,证)(券)(监)(管)(部)(门)(一)(直)(试)(图)(推)(进)(资)(本)(市)(场)(相)(关)(改)(革)(,对)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(的)(风)(险)(一)(直)(密)(切)(关)(注)(,但)(对)(整)(个)(市)(场)(所)(蕴)(含)(的)(系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(把)(握)(仍)(显)(欠)(缺)(,缺)(乏)(对)(极)(端)(情)(况)(有)(效)(的)(紧)(急)(处)(理)(预)(案)(。
  据)(《财)(经)(》记)(者)(了)(解)(,5月)(28日)(沪)(指)(暴)(跌)(6.5%之)(后)(,证)(监)(会)(组)(织)(中)(信)(证)(券)(、申)(万)(宏)(源)(、银)(河)(证)(券)(、中)(信)(建)(投)(和)(中)(国)(证)(金)(公)(司)(摸)(底)(两)(融)(业)(务)(,并)(在)(随)(后)(的)(三)(周)(时)(间)(,每)(周)(听)(取)(市)(场)(机)(构)(的)(最)(新)(汇)(报)(。
  据)(参)(会)(人)(士)(介)(绍)(,有)(机)(构)(测)(算)(,5月)(28日)(市)(场)(大)(跌)(之)(前)(,市)(场)(总)(浮)(盈)(在)(9000多)(亿)(元)(,显)(示)(经)(过)(充)(分)(换)(手)(后)(,主)(力)(资)(金)(已)(兑)(现)(大)(部)(分)(盈)(利)(,当)(天)(市)(场)(大)(跌)(后)(,市)(场)(总)(浮)(盈)(迅)(速)(下)(降)(至)(4300亿)(元)(左)(右)(,当)(时)(市)(场)(已)(较)(为)(脆)(弱)(,但)(两)(融)(业)(务)(的)(风)(险)(并)(不)(明)(显)(。
  当)(时)(,证)(监)(会)(对)(于)(场)(外)(配)(资)(规)(模)(并)(不)(掌)(握)(,此)(后)(切)(断)(券)(商)(端)(口)(场)(外)(配)(资)(所)(引)(发)(的)(连)(锁)(反)(应)(是)(证)(监)(会)(始)(料)(未)(及)(的)(。
  前)(述)(参)(会)(人)(士)(说)(,在)(市)(场)(高)(点)(时)(,主)(动)(刺)(破)(泡)(沫)(谈)(不)(上)(明)(智)(之)(举)(,而)(在)(市)(场)(已)(经)(出)(现)(崩)(盘)(迹)(象)(后)(,监)(管)(部)(门)(并)(未)(足)(够)(重)(视)(,也)(缺)(乏)(相)(应)(的)(应)(对)(措)(施)(和)(经)(验)(。尽)(管)(A股)(市)(场)(首)(次)(经)(历)(大)(规)(模)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(的)(流)(入)(,但)(这)(一)(教)(训)(值)(得)(反)(思)(。
  北)(京)(一)(家)(证)(券)(公)(司)(的)(高)(管)(称)(,对)(于)(去)(杠)(杆)(采)(取)(强)(烈)(监)(管)(措)(施)(引)(发)(风)(险)(后)(,证)(券)(监)(管)(部)(门)(转)(而)(鼓)(励)(券)(商)(加)(杠)(杆)(,这)(样)(的)(矛)(盾)(政)(策)(损)(害)(了)(监)(管)(的)(严)(肃)(性)(,引)(起)(更)(多)(混)(乱)(。
  多)(年)(来)(中)(国)(金)(融)(业)(分)(业)(监)(管)(、缺)(乏)(统)(筹)(协)(调)(的)(某)(些)(弊)(端)(,也)(在)(本)(轮)(股)(市)(涨)(跌)(中)(再)(次)(显)(现)(。市)(场)(人)(士)(注)(意)(到)(,此)(次)(对)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(的)(检)(查)(,证)(监)(会)(、银)(监)(会)(并)(没)(有)(共)(享)(信)(息)(,导)(致)(证)(监)(会)(对)(场)(外)(配)(资)(规)(模)(估)(计)(不)(足)(,对)(形)(势)(的)(研)(判)(出)(现)(较)(大)(偏)(差)(,在)(市)(场)(崩)(溃)(的)(过)(程)(中)(,至)(今)(没)(有)(关)(于)(场)(外)(配)(资)(信)(息)(的)(权)(威)(发)(布)(,进)(一)(步)(加)(剧)(了)(市)(场)(恐)(慌)(。
  目)(前)(证)(券)(业)(界)(主)(流)(观)(点)(将)(此)(次)(市)(场)(暴)(跌)(归)(咎)(于)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(的)(运)(用)(,在)(这)(些)(分)(析)(之)(外)(,一)(些)(更)(冷)(静)(的)(投)(资)(者)(开)(始)(关)(注)(:在)(供)(给)(端)(的)(行)(政)(控)(制)(,是)(否)(是)(这)(次)(股)(灾)(发)(生)(的)(另)(一)(个)(重)(要)(原)(因)(。
  多)(位)(市)(场)(人)(士)(向)(《财)(经)(》记)(者)(表)(示)(,面)(对)(如)(此)(汹)(涌)(的)(资)(金)(流)(入)(,证)(监)(会)(仍)(然)(控)(制)(新)(股)(发)(行)(节)(奏)(并)(控)(制)(发)(行)(价)(格)((发)(行)(市)(盈)(率)(不)(超)(过)(23倍)(),造)(成)(创)(业)(板)(400多)(只)(股)(票)(遭)(到)(爆)(炒)(,新)(股)(上)(市)(后)(屡)(创)(涨)(停)(板)(纪)(录)(。
  2015年)(上)(半)(年)(,沪)(深)(股)(市)(IPO总)(融)(资)(额)(1461亿)(元)(,与)(日)(均)(过)(万)(亿)(的)(成)(交)(额)(相)(比)(,根)(本)(无)(法)(满)(足)(市)(场)(需)(求)(。来)(自)(监)(管)(内)(部)(的)(声)(音)(称)(,监)(管)(部)(门)(在)(新)(股)(发)(行)(的)(问)(题)(上)(一)(直)(投)(鼠)(忌)(器)(,害)(怕)(增)(加)(新)(股)(供)(应)(会)(打)(压)(指)(数)(。
  不)(过)(,在)(市)(场)(大)(涨)(之)(后)(,在)(试)(图)(降)(低)(杠)(杆)(的)(同)(时)(,又)(突)(然)(加)(大)(新)(股)(供)(应)(,一)(次)(性)(批)(准)(了)(28家)(企)(业)(的)(IPO,则)(直)(接)(刺)(破)(了)(泡)(沫)(。
  几)(位)(不)(愿)(具)(名)(的)(研)(究)(者)(亦)(明)(确)(指)(出)(,面)(对)(这)(样)(一)(个)(极)(端)(疯)(狂)(的)(市)(场)(,某)(些)(官)(方)(媒)(体)(发)(出)(“4000点)(是)(牛)(市)(新)(起)(点)(”、机)(构)(研)(报)(频)(频)(鼓)(吹)(万)(点)(论)(、投)(资)(者)(的)(非)(理)(性)(行)(为)(都)(值)(得)(反)(思)(。
  《财)(经)(》记)(者)(接)(触)(的)(各)(方)(面)(人)(士)(建)(言)(,当)(股)(市)(危)(机)(出)(现)(时)(,广)(开)(言)(路)(显)(得)(极)(为)(重)(要)(,在)(喧)(嚣)(和)(抱)(怨)(中)(,能)(够)(直)(陈)(问)(题)(所)(在)(的)(声)(音)(需)(要)(倾)(听)(,哪)(怕)(是)(监)(管)(部)(门)(出)(现)(了)(失)(当)(举)(措)(。而)(目)(前)(的)(市)(场)(氛)(围)(,言)(路)(并)(不)(足)(够)(通)(畅)(。
  由)(此)(,一)(旦)(股)(市)(出)(现)(暴)(跌)(,参)(与)(各)(方)(均)(将)(希)(望)(寄)(托)(在)(监)(管)(部)(门)(身)(上)(,逼)(仄)(了)(监)(管)(操)(作)(空)(间)(,在)(救)(市)(过)(程)(中)(,一)(些)(强)(烈)(行)(政)(干)(预)(的)(措)(施)(亦)(有)(可)(能)(再)(次)(祭)(出)(,即)(使)(一)(时)(缓)(解)(下)(跌)(压)(力)(,也)(可)(能)(成)(为)(中)(国)(资)(本)(市)(场)(20多)(年)(改)(革)(的)(某)(种)(倒)(退)(。
  多)(位)(证)(券)(市)(场)(权)(威)(人)(士)(提)(醒)(:面)(对)(疯)(牛)(之)(后)(的)(“股)(灾)(”,从)(监)(管)(者)(到)(投)(资)(者)(,都)(需)(要)(及)(时)(补)(课)(,以)(免)(重)(蹈)(履)(辙)(。麻)(烦)(在)(于)(,我)(们)(为)(此)(付)(出)(的)(代)(价)(,是)(否)(是)(中)(国)(经)(济)(和)(金)(融)(体)(系)(所)(能)(消)(化)(的)(?
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